According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of June 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China was 342 million kilowatts, including 316 million kilowatts of onshore wind power and 26.66 million kilowatts of offshore wind power.
Construction of offshore wind farm projects
Under the “dual carbon” goal, China’s wind power market has achieved unprecedented tremendous development. In response to this, the wind power aftermarket services, including wind power operation and maintenance, technological upgrading, and replacing small with large, will also usher in a new round of growth. According to CWEA (China Wind Energy Association) data, the total installed capacity of wind power in China at the end of 2012 was 75.32 million kilowatts, with an installed capacity of 53764 units. This means that by the end of 2022, there will be over 50000 wind turbines operating for 10 years or more, which will generate a massive demand for upgrades and replacements, and the market development is unlimited.
The post wind power market may exceed 65 billion yuan in 2025
Since entering the 14th Five Year Plan, there has been a clear demand for high-quality development of wind power. In August 2021, the Development and Reform Commission of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region issued a notice on launching a pilot program for updating old wind farms in Ningxia by replacing small ones with large ones. Subsequently, at the end of 2021, the National Energy Administration solicited opinions on the “Management Measures for Wind Farm Renovation, Upgrading, and Retirement” across the industry, encouraging wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years to carry out renovation, upgrading, and retirement, and clarifying subsidy plans for renovation and upgrading projects.
The support of policies lays the foundation for the high-quality development of the wind power aftermarket. According to the “China Post Market Development Report 2022”, the capacity of units installed for more than 15 years in 2021 is approximately 2.6 million kilowatts, of which the capacity of units installed for 15-20 years is 2.197 million kilowatts, accounting for 84.5%.
With the increasing capacity of wind turbines in recent years, it is expected that 1.0-2.0 megawatts of in-service units will become the first batch of “retrofitted” units. According to CWEA data, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of 2.0 megawatts and below accounted for approximately 30%. Most of them are concentrated in the Three North region, and as the birthplace of China’s wind power industry, the Three North region still has a considerable share of foreign brand wind turbines such as Vestas and Siemens Gomesa. These wind turbine equipment will be the key after-sales service targets for technological upgrading and replacing small ones with large ones.
According to the 2022 China Post Market Development Report, it is expected that the post market capacity of wind power in China may exceed 65 billion yuan by 2025. Considering the design lifespan of the wind farm for 20 years, assuming that some wind turbines that have been in operation for more than 15 years have renovation needs, wind turbines that have not been renovated for 20 years will begin to retire. Preliminary estimates show that the cumulative capacity of wind turbines with renovation and retirement needs nationwide from 2021 to 2030 will exceed 60 million kilowatts.
The post market services represented by technological upgrading and replacing small with large ones are on the verge of breaking out.
Drone Overlooking Sany SAC18000T Wind Power Hoisting Operation
Drone Overlooking Wind Power Hoisting Operations
The post wind power market faces multiple challenges
From 2020 to 2021, China’s wind power installed capacity experienced a huge leap, with grid connected installed capacity climbing nearly 120 gigawatts over the past two years. This also represents that by the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, a large number of wind farms will concentrate on quality assurance, and the supply of operation and maintenance talents and wind farm operation management will face pressure and challenges.
On the other hand, although Ningxia has implemented a series of corresponding measures for wind farm technological transformation and upgrading, as well as policy details to simplify the approval procedures for “replacing small with large” wind farms. However, from the perspective of top-level design, the “Management Measures for Wind Farm Transformation, Upgrading and Retirement” of the National Energy Administration has not yet been officially released, and there is still a lack of top-level design and policy basis for wind farm transformation, upgrading and retirement management.
Thirdly, the operation and maintenance of offshore wind power remains one of the challenges in the wind power aftermarket. 2022 is a crucial year for the operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in China. While a large number of new offshore wind turbines have entered the maintenance period, the number of offshore wind turbines installed for at least 5 years has increased significantly compared to previous years. Moreover, in 2021, China’s offshore wind power will add nearly 17 gigawatts of installed capacity, and the early stage of the 15th Five Year Plan will also become the stage of centralized quality assurance for offshore wind power.
At present, there are many shortcomings in the operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in China, such as high operation and maintenance costs, uneven professional levels of personnel, and limited equipment for operation and maintenance vessels. Industry experts say that with the deep and large-scale development of offshore wind power, there will be greater demand for operation and maintenance vessels, high-speed operation and maintenance vessels, and operation and maintenance mother ships. It is expected that the demand for high-speed offshore wind power operation and maintenance ships will exceed 500 by 2035, and the demand for operation and maintenance mother ships will reach 50-70.
Finally, the retirement and recycling of wind power equipment are also key areas that cannot be bypassed in the high-quality development of wind power. According to data, the scale of solid waste generated from retired blades is expected to approach 5800 tons in 2025, and will further increase to 74000 tons by 2028. Exploring the technology and business model of wind power equipment recycling and utilization will be a powerful guarantee to help wind power achieve a green exit in the last mile.
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